Monday, December 5, 2016

What does a Trump presidency mean for jobs?


This isn't me talking, this is self-made billionaire, entrepreneur, Dallas Mavericks owner, and Shark Tank star Mark Cuban talking about what effect Donald Trump will have on the economy as a president.  Bottom line, Trump will, without a doubt, say or tweet things that will have huge consequences both on international relations and the stock markets.  If there's one thing we can all agree on with Donald Trump, it's that he doesn't know when to shut up.  Yes, some people like that about him.  But as a president, there's a time to keep your thoughts to yourself.  Actually, that's necessary much of the time for the leader of the free world. 

Now, I know this clip of Mark Cuban was shot a week before the election.  When news first broke of Trump's electoral college win, the Dow futures dropped the equivalent of 800 points.  That was a huge negative reaction to the surprise of him winning.  Yes, since that time, there's been a big rally in the stock markets here in the U.S., with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking the 19,000 mark for the first time ever.  So isn't this a good thing? 

If you're a big time investor who owned Goldman Sachs stock three weeks ago, yeah, it's a good thing.  But for the average person, it doesn't make much difference.  In fact, the stock markets have risen COMPLETELY on the hopes of WHAT MIGHT happen in a Trump presidency.  The stock markets routinely over-react to news.  In this particular case, president-elect Trump has yet to take office, he hasn't made a single policy, and no one knows exactly what WILL happen as he takes office.  The stock markets have risen because they're betting on everything good THAT MIGHT happen, and completely ignoring what could possibly go wrong.  Hey, the stock markets really get stupid sometimes.  This is one of those times. 

Like Mark Cuban said in the clip above, Trump can't keep his mouth shut when something makes him happy or pisses him off.  It's a 100% sure thing that Trump will say something that will have major political, social and financial repercussions at some point.  In fact, just by taking a phone call from the head of Taiwan a couple days ago, Trump managed to piss off China, the largest nation by population, and one of the biggest economies, on Earth.  Instead of apologizing for making a rookie mistake as a politician, he doubled down on stupidity and went on a Twitter tirade about China.  Yes, he made some valid points, but he did so in a totally stupid way.  If Trump's comments cause a war, a trade war, or continue to ignore the United States' longstanding foreign policy, we will see a big stock market downturn, companies downsizing because of hostility in countries they do business in, more terrorist attacks, and most likely a serious recession here.  None of those things are good for jobs here.

Yes, I know Trump said he'd bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.  Yes, I saw that he bribed the air conditioning company Carrier $7 million to keep 800 jobs in the U.S.  But they're still sending 1300 jobs to Mexico.  And now EVERY big company will want bribes to keep jobs here.  Trump has never created high paying manufacturing jobs in any large amount.  He doesn't have a background in technology, where most of today's good paying jobs are created. 

So here's how I see it.  There are at least 20 million unemployed and underemployed people in the U.S., although these people don't show up in the unemployment report.  No one has real plans to create jobs for these people, and I'm included in that bunch.  We need to start creating our own jobs if we can't find good paying employment.  While the Trump administration may take actions to help the highest paid people in our society, there is no real plan for average folks.  People talk about the dwindling middle class during elections, but then little action follows.  Here we go again... same ol', smae ol'.

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